We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve … 1990s. Allowing for a break in intercept, the inflation measures generally exhibit relatively low inflation persistence …. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies. …

How monetary policy should be set optimally when the structure of the economy exhibits inflation persistence is an … important question for policy makers. This paper provides an overview of the implications of inflation persistence for the …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of … and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second …, it helps to timely track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory …