The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of...

We study alternative monetary policy strategies in the presence of the lower bound on nominal interest rates and a low equilibrium real rate using an estimated DSGE model for the euro area. We demonstrate that simple feedback rules that implement inflation targeting result in a binding lower...

We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics and ftnance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate...

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large...

This paper describes the response of three central banks to the 2007-09 financial crisis: the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In particular, the paper discusses the design, implementation and impact of so-called "non-standard" monetary policy measures focusing...

This paper describes the response of three central banks to the 2007-09 financial crisis: the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In particular, the paper discusses the design, implementation and impact of so-called "non-standard" monetary policy measures focusing...

This paper presents a toolkit1 for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five contributions. First, the toolkit requires a minimal set of inputs: only a baseline projection for target and instrument variables and impulse responses of those variables to policy shocks. Second, it solves...

We analyse the implications of asymmetric monetary policy rules by estimating Markovswitching DSGE models for the euro area (EA) and the US. The estimations show that until mid-2014 the ECB's response to in ation was more forceful when in ation was above 2% than below 2%. Since then, the ECB's...

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. In ation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect...

To study implications of an interest-bearing CBDC on the economy, we integrate a New Monetarist-type decentralised market that explicitly accounts for the means-of-exchange function of bank deposits and CBDC into a New Keynesian model with financial frictions. The central bank influences the...