The paper identifies the business models followed by banks in the euro area, utilising a proprietary dataset collected in the context of the supervisory reporting of the Single Supervisory Mechanism. The concept of a 'business model' has been neglected by economic theory and is defined here with...

Outlier detection in high-dimensional datasets poses new challenges that have not been investigated in the literature. In this paper, we present an integrated methodology for the identification of outliers which is suitable for datasets with higher number of variables than observations. Our...

At the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks' capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB's dividend...

The architecture of supervision - how we define the allocation of supervisory powers to different policy institutions - can have implications for policy conduct and for the economic and financial environment in which these policies are implemented. Theoretically, an integrated structure for...

We show that a reduction in lender of last resort (LOLR) policy uncertainty posi-tively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment. We exploita unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future LOLRfunding for banks as a quasi-natural experiment....

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro areamanufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset selection on the empirical performance of factor models. First,...

The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical...

We analyse high-frequency changes in the euro area money market yield curve on dates when the ECB regularly sets and communicates decisions on policy interest rates to construct different indicators of monetary policy news relating to policy decisions and to central bank communication. The...