Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limitin … attetention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

changes in inflation on fiscal policy. We find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary … an inflation turning point - beyond which its short-term (contemporaneous) impact on the primary balance starts being … the whole sample of euro area countries in 2022 (EA-19). Using an alternative measure of "inflation surprise" (available …

inflation and the extent of real wage rigidity but that these effects depend on the definition of reference norms (e.g. how … leadership (i.e. asymmetries in reference norms). -- Inflation Persistence ; Real Wage Rigidity ; Staggered Contracts ; Wage …