The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …

Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

changes in inflation on fiscal policy. We find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary … an inflation turning point - beyond which its short-term (contemporaneous) impact on the primary balance starts being … the whole sample of euro area countries in 2022 (EA-19). Using an alternative measure of "inflation surprise" (available …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

We compare the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom …, focusing on the post-crisis period. First of all, we estimate a set of measures of average and tail correlation using inflation …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …

on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …