Showing 1 - 8 of 8
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form … differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935830
learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636284
expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits … approximated by a representative-agent model with constant-gain learning, where the gain parameter is related to the survival rate …. - Learning from experience ; OLG ; asset pricing ; bubbles ; heterogeneous agents …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380930
We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically … alters the effects of aggregate shocks. Learning from prices causes changes in aggregate productivity to shift aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011648329
Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of macroeconomic consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in the microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856412
Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997441
We study how the use of judgement or add-factorsʺ in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003209153