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This paper analyses the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the current account of the balance of payments and considers how Ricardian equivalence changes this relationship. To do so, we estimate a dynamic panel threshold model for 22 industrialised countries in which the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790939
in consumption in five key sectors: tourism, hospitality, services, retail, and public transports. We identify a large …-term sectoral consumption shifts may occur. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643267
We investigate which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years. This is a challenging task due to dimensionality problems: a large set of potential determinants, limited data, and the prospect that some variables could be non-stationary. We assemble a set of 35...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625874
This paper develops a small New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and government debt dynamics. The paper discusses the design of simple monetary and fiscal policy rules consistent with determinate equilibrium dynamics in the absence of Ricardian equivalence. Under this assumption,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003337474
We revisit the so-called "secular international problem", whereby the adjustment of current account imbalances purportedly falls entirely on the shoulders of deficit countries. We introduce a stylised model to rationalise an asymmetric counter-cyclical policy reaction that is stronger for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013552616
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. "CARES" act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of … households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus … likely be necessary if consumption spending is to recover. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241286
estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the … concern causes a significant reduction in nondurable consumption. The paper also explores the potential impact on consumption … of government interventions and of another wave of Covid-19, using household-level consumption adjustments to scenarios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390462
This paper analyses the incidence and severity of sudden stops in euro area countries before and after the introduction of the ECB's asset purchase programmes. We define sudden stops as abrupt declines in private net financial inflows, i.e. total flows adjusted for EU and IMF loans and changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643263
We investigate the factors driving current account and monetary policy developments in the euro area. We estimate an open-economy structural vector autoregression (VAR) model with zero and sign restrictions derived from a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329445
We study the role and the interaction of the quality of institutions and of counter-cyclical policies in leaning against the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) in Emerging Economies (EMEs). We show that heteroegeneity in institutional strength is a key determinant of the different effects of the GFC...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013488632