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Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery : lessons from the financial crisis

Foroni, Claudia; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Stevanović, … - 2020

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285550

Managing the sovereign-bank nexus

Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni; Ferreira, Caio; Jenkinson, Nigel; … - 2018

This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a "sovereign-bank nexus" whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901498

Global growth on life support? : the contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis

Baumann, Ursel; Lodge, David; Miescu, Mirela S. - 2019

with a hierarchical structure we capture the variability of GDP response to policy shocks both between and within the … more homogeneous effects on GDP. We then quantify the policy contribution on GDP growth in the last decade by means of a … structural counterfactual analysis based on conditional forecasts. We find that global GDP growth benefited from substantial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987115

Financial policy in an exuberant world

Walther, Ansgar - 2020

This paper studies optimal financial policy in a world where the financial sector can become excessively optimistic. I decompose the welfare effects of bank capital regulation to demonstrate the effects of exuberance and its interaction with incentive problems in banking. The optimal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178343

Fiscal policy and the "Great Recession" in the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765223

Fiscal developments and financial stress : a threshold VAR analysis

Afonso, António; Baxa, Jaromír; Slavík, Michal - 2011

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935826

Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

Martin, Alberto; Ventura, Jaume - 2011

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009160016

Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area : a country-specific early warning system

Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Koester, Gerrit B.; … - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441234

Fiscal policy and growth : do financial crises make a difference?

Afonso, António; Grüner, Hans Peter; Kolerus, … - 2010

instrumented regular and crisis spending is about 0.6-0.8 considering the sample average government spending share of GDP of about …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983667

Government-guaranteed credit and populism

Dautovic, Ernest; Hsieh, Robin - 2024

The phenomenon of political populism and its financial determinants have proved elusive. We utilise the sudden and uneven change in credit conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented government credit guarantee programme in France to investigate whether liquidity support to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015178549