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Economic growth and budgetary components : a panel assessment for the EU

Afonso, António (contributor); … - 2008

In this paper we test whether a reallocation of government budget items can enhance long-term GDP growth in a set of European countries. We apply modern panel data techniques to the period 1970-2006, and we use three alternative dependent variables in a growth regression: economic growth, total...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636014

Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth

Afonso, António (contributor); Furceri, Davide (contributor) - 2008

and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636033

Flow on conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Heinisch, Katja (contributor); Maurin, Laurent (contributor) - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003789413

The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production : perspective from large panel factor models

Darracq Pariès, Matthieu (contributor); … - 2008

Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro areamanufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset selection on the empirical performance of factor models. First,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778786

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area : does national information help?

Cristadoro, Riccardo (contributor); … - 2008

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778828

Fiscal consolidation in the euro area : long-run benefits and short-run costs

Coenen, Günter (contributor); Mohr, Matthias (contributor); … - 2008

In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic effects of alternative fiscal consolidation policies in the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), a two-country open-economy model of the euro area developed at the European Central Bank (cf. Coenen et al., 2007). We model fiscal consolidation as a permanent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778833

Fiscal and monetary policy in the enlarged European Union (forthcoming)

Pogorelec, Sabina (contributor) - 2006

I build a quantitative two-country DSGE model of the European Union (EU) and investigate whether there are welfare … gains from fiscal policy cooperation between the new EU members and the euro area (EMU). Fiscal cooperation is defined in … firms in the new EU countries. When there is no foreign ownership in the new EU countries, the euro area is indifferent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003358603

Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime

Annicchiarico, Barbara (contributor); … - 2006

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, capital accumulation and finite lifetimes. The framework exhibits intergenerational wealth effects and is intended to investigate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, which is specified by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003358633

Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates

Hendry, David F. (contributor); Hubrich, Kirstin (contributor) - 2006

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003280663

A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area

Stracca, Livio (contributor) - 2006

This paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian model on euro area data and evaluates the performance of different simple policy rules and of the optimal unconstrained rule under commitment. The study reaches two main conclusions. First, inflation is found to be mainly forward-looking in the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310803

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