We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …

encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …

; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …