Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at the frequency ù=0 has exhibited little variationbeing, most of the time, close to onein the U.S., the U.K., and several other countries, thus implying that the fraction of...

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and Canada for data from the 1960s up to the present. Our...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining inflation, and either the closing of this gap or...

This paper studies the nature, evolution, and sources of inflation heterogeneity across households in France and Germany. Inflation differences are large and persistent. The two main sources of inflation heterogeneity are spatial differences in the prices paid for the same product and...