We study the application of approximate mean field variational inference algorithms to Bayesian panel VAR models in which an exchangeable prior is placed on the dynamic parameters and the residuals follow either a Gaussian or a Student-t distribution. This reduces the estimation time of possibly...

This paper proposes a new paradigm for the analysis of monetary policy. From an econometric point of view this new approach is just as easy to implement as reduced form analysis, but is robust to the Lucas critique. It requires no explicit prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE...

This paper uses a Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model in a panel of 21 emerging market and advanced economies to investigate the factors behind the dynamics of global trade flows, with a particular view on the issue of global trade imbalances and on the conditions of their unwinding. The...

This paper extends the analysis of infinite dimensional vector autoregressive models (IVAR) proposed in Chudik and Pesaran (2010) to the case where one of the variables or the cross section units in the IVAR model is dominant or pervasive. This extension is not straightforward and involves...

This paper shows that Vector Autoregression with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results by De Mol, Giannone, and Reichlin (2008) and show that, when the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the cross-sectional dimension, the forecasting...

This paper introduces a novel approach for dealing with the "curse of dimensionality" in the case of large linear dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is...

We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a decomposition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected...

We investigate the interactions across current account misalignments, Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments and financial (or output) gaps within EU countries. We apply panel techniques, including a Bayesian panel VAR, to 27 EU members over the period 1994-2012. We find that, for the euro...

We bring together the spatial and global vector autoregressive (GVAR) classes of econometric models by providing a detailed methodological review of where they meet in terms of structure, interpretation, and estimation methods. We discuss the structure of cross-section connectivity (weight)...

When capital in the banking system becomes depleted, the degree to which financial intermediation and the macroeconomy are adversely affected is likely to depend on the financial and macroeconomic environment. However, existing studies either assume that the effects of bank capital shocks are...