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We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212851
Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635882
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001762889
This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation … forecasts of inflation) but also makes forecasters less uncertain about their own beliefs, thus reducing ex-ante average … individual uncertainty. By combining and exploiting these types of ex-ante inflation uncertainty, results suggest that central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603073
Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 offer important insights on inflation … dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but … their effects have been different depending on the behaviour of trend inflation in each country. Countries with relatively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012132591
On 1 June 2018 the ECB celebrated its 20th anniversary. This paper provides a comprehensive view of the ECB's monetary policy over these two decades. The first section provides a chronological account of the macroeconomic and monetary policy developments in the euro area since the adoption of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959260
Does an inflation conservative central bank à la Rogoff (1985) remain desirable in a setting with endogenous fiscal … optimal inflation rate internalizing this distortion is positive, but lack of monetary commitment robustly generates too much … inflation. A conservative monetary authority thus remains desirable. Exclusive focus on inflation by the central bank recoups …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003358641
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765963
financial crisis and speeds up exit from the crisis. The downside of coordination is variability in inflation and in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856525
A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limitin … attetention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003599410