series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long …-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal …. A "money augmented"; Phillips curve that links inflation to money tightness and demand shocks of medium to long …

optimal but 'simple' forecast functions, describes subjects'; inflation expectations surprisingly well and explains the …This paper presents experimental evidence from a monetary sticky price economy in which output and inflation depend on … expected future inflation. With rational inflation expectations, the economy does not generate persistent deviations of output …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …