for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

quantitatively negligible consequences on policy behaviour and inflation dynamics. - Monetary policy ; potential output uncertainty …

By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this … forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and … relative price asymmetry is positive, idiosyncratic shocks lead to a substantial build-up in inflation only after two to five …

responses to both permanent and transitory shocks in Hungary and compared my results to similar studies on Italian and …

, based on a panel of four biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) confirm …

, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey from May 1998 to December 2007. To account for the importance of market expectations we use …

than previously thought. - Wage setting ; survey ; wage dynamics network ; Hungary …