forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to … pre-tax price modelling. These characteristics enhance both in-sample explanatory power and forecast accuracy. Compared to …

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a ….1 percent quarterly on average at most to a 1 percentage change in the expenditure or revenue ratio). In Italy, the US and …