Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union...

Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at the frequency ù=0 has exhibited little variationbeing, most of the time, close to onein the U.S., the U.K., and several other countries, thus implying that the fraction of...

We investigate which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years. This is a challenging task due to dimensionality problems: a large set of potential determinants, limited data, and the prospect that some variables could be non-stationary. We assemble a set of 35...

We study the relationship between banks' size and risk-taking in the context of supranational banking supervision. Consistently with theoretical work on banking unions and in contrast to analyses emphasising incentives under- pinned by the too-big-to-fail effect, we find an inverse relationship...

This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook information not only reduces professional...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...

This paper analyses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies in a monetary union with an application to the euro area. Accounting for a high degree of openness and a strong dependence on intra and extra union trade, we focus on the size and the direction of...

We study exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), i.e., the impact of exchange rate movements on inflation, focusing on euro area import prices at a sectorally disaggregated level. Our estimation strategy is based on VAR-X models, thus incorporating both endogenous and exogenous explanatory...