Showing 1 - 10 of 1,012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001702813
In most euro area countries, the monetary/fiscal policy mix is responsible for the changing history of debt and … simulations reveal that the PM/AF regime in France led to price volatility and debt stabilisation, while the AM/PF regime resulted … in disinflation and rising debt trajectory. Meanwhile, Italy's procyclical fiscal policy in downturns contributed to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014482924
run, as well as a decline in sovereign and systemic stress. Debt over GDP negatively influences growth for the periphery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625874
We study the relationship between banks' size and risk-taking in the context of supranational banking supervision. Consistently with theoretical work on banking unions and in contrast to analyses emphasising incentives under- pinned by the too-big-to-fail effect, we find an inverse relationship...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012627903
This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook information not only reduces professional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603073
This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643282
This paper analyses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies in a monetary union with an application to the euro area. Accounting for a high degree of openness and a strong dependence on intra and extra union trade, we focus on the size and the direction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643287
We study exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), i.e., the impact of exchange rate movements on inflation, focusing on euro area import prices at a sectorally disaggregated level. Our estimation strategy is based on VAR-X models, thus incorporating both endogenous and exogenous explanatory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012745349
I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299079
This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098167