similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper … activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard … method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in …

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing …