We propose a new method for multivariate forecasting which combines Dynamic Factor and multivariate GARCH models. The information contained in large datasets is captured by few dynamic common factors, which we assume being conditionally heteroskedastic. After presenting the model, we propose a...

We propose a refinement of the criterion by Bai and Ng [2002] for determining the number of static factors in factor models with large datasets. It consists in multiplying the penalty function by a constant which tunes the penalizing power of the function itself as in the Hallin and Lika [2007]...

This paper explores the statistical properties of household consumption-expenditure budget share distributions defined as the share of household total expenditure spent for purchasing a specific category of commodities for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989-2004. We find...

We propose a new method for multivariate forecasting which combines Dynamic Factor and multivariate GARCH models. The information contained in large datasets is captured by few dynamic common factors, which we assume being conditionally heteroskedastic. After presenting the model, we propose a...

We review, under a historical perspective, the development of the problem of nonfundamentalness of Moving Average (MA) representations of economic models. Nonfundamentalness typically arises when agents'information space is larger than the econometrician's one. Therefore it is impossible for the...

We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. A signalling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have relatively serious real...