using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form … included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep …

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more … their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form … included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …