Showing 1 - 10 of 112
We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212851
In this paper we investigate the impact of the euro integration process on the drivers of FDI inflows. We show … bilateral gravity models of FDI inflows into euro area countries, we show that the euro facilitates intra-euro area vertical FDI … countries located outside the monetary union increase. Such flows are however not more likely be directed towards euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011999066
the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve … complements an investigation of the consequences of the zerointerest- rate bound for monetary policy-making in the euro area, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635901
Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our … of the euro-area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed-price durations and discount rates and embody …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635912
Endogeneity of the labour market slack in reduced-form Phillips Curves (PCs) is usually addressed either by including proxies for omitted supply shocks, or by using instrumental variables. Using the Kiviet (2020) Kinky Least Squares estimator, we find evidence that supply-shock proxies should...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705429
Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we … than univariate benchmarks but for the euro area the professional forecasters are more accurate, especially in recent years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643485
Tight labour markets are usually accompanied by mounting wage pressures. Yet, in the past decade, wage growth has remained subdued despite the appearance of widespread labour shortages. This paper re-examines labour market conditions since 2007 through the lens of a novel indicator, relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594258
The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. In ation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241237
breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … extraordinarily long period by euro area standards. We complement the analysis using real-time data over 2005-2018. As lessons for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299084
This paper explores whether the transmission mechanism between wages and prices in the euro area is affected by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305400