Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensive labor-market margin and adds the unemployment rate to the observables. The main question we address is if these … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

. Our analysis improves upon existing work by endogenising the volatility of both output and inflation. Improved …

Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …