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The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975386
Suppose a fund manager uses predictors in changing portfolio allocations over time. How does predictability translate into portfolio decisions? To answer this question we derive a new model within the Bayesian framework, where managers are assumed to modulate the systematic risk in part by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749945
We model the impact of bank mergers on loan competition, banks' reserve holdings and aggregate liquidity. Banks compete … in liquidity risk and expected liquidity needs for each bank and for the banking system. Large mergers tend to increase … expected aggregate liquidity needs, and thus the liquidity provision by the central bank. Comparative statics suggest that a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635892
Four years after the introduction of the euro, this paper provides an overview of the current structure and integration of the euro area financial systems and related policy initiatives. We first compare the euro area financial structure with that of the United States and Japan. Using new and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635984
This paper discusses a wide range of indicators of the degree of integration of the euro area banking system. It is concerned with volume data, a less developed field of research compared with studies on prices/rates. We first set out a methodological framework, a mixture of elementary and more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636523
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. We show that ECB communications at the press conference were crucial for the market response and that bank health … some persistence. Other bank characteristics, in particular bank size, leverage and NPL ratios, amplified the impact of … monetary policy shocks on banks. After the OMT announcement, we detect that the response of bank stocks to monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037354
period. In addition, we observe that Total Factor Productivity growth for the median euro area bank decreased from around 2 … bank's efforts in areas such as rationalisation of branches, digitalisation of business processes and possibly mergers and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037380