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Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements
Glatzer, Ernst; Scheicher, Martin - 2003
In this paper we study risk-neutral densities (RNDs) for the German stock market. The use of option prices allows us to quantify the risk-neutral probabilities of various levels of the DAX index. For the period from December 1995 to November 2001, we implement the mixture of log-normals model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639855
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Derivative margin calls : a new driver of MMF flows
Ghio, Maddalena; Rousová, Linda; Salakhova, Dilyara; … - 2023
derivatives, SHSS data for investor holdings of MMFs and Refinitiv Lipper data for daily MMF flows) to construct a daily fund …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278618
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The term structure of risk premia
Berg, Tobias - 2010
This study calibrates the term structure of risk premia before and during the 2007/2008 financial crisis using a new calibration approach based on credit default swaps. The risk premium term structure was flat before the crisis and downward sloping during the crisis. The instantaneous risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640393
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A quantitative mirror on the Euribor market using implied probability density functions
Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert de; Puigvert Gutiérrez, … - 2010
This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640514
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The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad : evidence from the ABX.HE indices
Fender, Ingo; Scheicher, Martin - 2009
This paper investigates the market pricing of subprime mortgage risk on the basis of data for the ABX.HE family of indices, which have become a key barometer of mortgage market conditions during the recent financial crisis. After an introduction into ABX index mechanics and a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003866554
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A value at risk analysis of credit default swaps
Raunig, Burkhard; Scheicher, Martin - 2008
We investigate the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book and compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm's equity using a sample of CDS stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period from March 2003 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003825863
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The term structure of risk premia : new evidence from the financial crisis
Berg, Tobias - 2010
This study calibrates the term structure of risk premia before and during the 2007/2008 financial crisis using a new calibration approach based on credit default swaps. The risk premium term structure was flat before the crisis and downward sloping during the crisis. The instantaneous risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971282
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A quantitative mirror on the Euribor market using implied probability density functions
Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert de; Puigvert Gutiérrez, … - 2010
This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901645
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Exchange rates and fundamentals
Engel, Charles; West, Kenneth David - 2003
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635953
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International equity flows and returns
Albuquerque, Rui; Bauer, Gregory H.; Schneider, Martin - 2004
model of trading that is built around two new assumptions: (i) both the foreign and domestic investor populations contain … investors of different sophistication, and (ii) investor sophistication matters for performance in both public equity and … prices there have recently been rising. The results suggest that heterogeneity within the foreign investor population is much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636533