In this paper we present a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model of ex ante unequally developed countries. The model explains a key feature recently observed in transition economies the long-run trend real exchange rate appreciation through investments into quality. Our exchange-rate...

In this paper we propose an extension to New International Macroeconomic framework by introducing the vertical investment margin. The dynamic properties of the extended model are discussed in relation to relevant existing models with particular emphasis on the impact of productivity convergence...

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit...

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...

Policymakers do not always follow a simple rule for setting policy rates for various reasons and thus their choices are co-driven by a decision to follow a rule or not. Consequently, some observations are censored and cause bias in conventional estimators of typical Taylor rules. To account for...

We study both theoretically and empirically the interdependence of lending decisions in different country branches of a multinational bank. First, we model a bank that delegates the management of its foreign unit to a local manager with non-transferable skills. The bank differs from other...