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We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285550
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259379
process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640507
, and Small (2005). The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted …This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now … from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794044
process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the … fourth quarter of 2008. - Nowcasting ; News ; Factor Model ; Forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771794
better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139745
We document the impact of COVID-19 on frequently employed time series models, with a focus on euro area in ation. We show that for both single equation models (Phillips curves) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimated parameters change notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012519429
Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643485
; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299084
forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987142