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DSGE model forecasting : rational expectations vs. adaptive learning

Warne, Anders - 2023

better as well as jointly with inflation. For the marginal inflation forecasts, the same holds for the inner quarters of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492913

Nowcasting employment in the euro area

Bańbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023

Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194

Nowcasting world trade with machine learning : a three-step approach

Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - 2023

We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362630

The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices

Allayioti, Anastasia; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2024

Commodity prices co-move, but the strength of this co-movement changes over time due to structural factors, like changing energy intensity in production and consumption as well as changing composition of underlying shocks. This paper explores whether econometric models that exploit this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704

Inflation persistence during periods of structural change

Hondroyiannis, George; Lazaretou, Sophia - 2004

The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and … coefficient (RC) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest … that inflation persistence was high during the inflationary period and the first six years of the disinflationary period …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639424

quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - 2003

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639841

Real time estimates of the euro area output gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - 2010

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640402

Pass-through of external shocks along the pricing chain

Landau, Bettina; Skudelny, Frauke - 2009

In this paper we analyse in a mark-up framework the pass-through of commodity price and exchange rate shocks to the main components of producer and consumer prices. Thereby we link movements in prices at the different production stages as firms set their prices as a mark-up over production...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640483

Pass-through of external shocks along the pricing chain : a panel estimation approach for the euro area

Landau, Bettina; Skudelny, Frauke - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963792

What's up with the Phillips curve?

Del Negro, Marco; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; … - 2020

an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect is due primarily to the muted reaction of inflation to cost … inflation stabilization also appears to have played some role by reducing the impact of demand shocks on the real economy. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241237