This paper introduces the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), a new online, high frequency panel survey of euro area consumers' expectations and behaviour. The paper also investigates whether public perceptions about fiscal support measures introduced during the pandemic have influenced spending...

We show that microfounded DSGE models with nominal rigidities can be successful in replicating features of bond yield which have previously been considered puzzling in general equilibrium frameworks. Consistent with empirical evidence, we obtain average holding period returns that are positive,...

Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending....

To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. "CARES" act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of...

Using new panel data from a representative survey of households in the six largest euro area economies, the paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the concern about finances due to Covid-19 from the first...

This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. We find that the price markup reacts positively to the ratio of expected discounted profits to current output, which is normally seen to...

The move to monetary union in Europe led to convergence of interest rates among the participating countries. This was associated with notable cross-country differences in the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. Compared to the low interest rate countries, former high interest rate...

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union...

This paper examines bond and stock market volatility reactions in the euro area and the US following their respective economies' monetary policy decisions, over a uniform sample period (April 1999 to May 2006). For this purpose, intraday data on the US and euro area bond and stock markets are...

This paper presents a systematic empirical relationship between money and subsequent prices and output, using US, euro area and Swiss data since the 1960-70s. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent...