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Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2009

This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831782

More than a feeling : confidence, uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations

Nowzohour, Laura; Stracca, Livio - 2017

Economists, observers and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we critically survey the existing literature on sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011719915

Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions

Bondt, Gabe J. de; Vermeulen, Philip - 2018

We estimate business cycle regime switching logit models for G7 countries to determine the effect of duration of the current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With respect to expansions in a G7 country, we find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937263

On the sources of business cycles : implications for DSGE models

Andrle, Michal; Brůha, Jan; Solmaz, Serhat - 2017

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647948

Learning about fiscal multipliers during the European sovereign debt crisis : evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Gόrnicka, Lucyna; Kamps, Christophe; Koester, Gerrit; … - 2018

Identifying fiscal multipliers is usually constrained by the absence of a counterfactual scenario. Our new data set allows overcoming this problem by making use of the fact that recommendations under the EU's excessive deficit procedure (EDP) provide both a baseline no-policy-change scenario and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856496

Switching-track after the Great Recession

Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, en- compassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012627907

Output growth and fluctuation : the role of financial openness

Popov, Alexander - 2011

investment, TFP, and new business creation. The growth benefits of financial liberalization are augmented, and its costs …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009354652

Detecting turning points in global economic activity

Baumann, Ursel; Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Seitz, Franz - 2019

We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059037

US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes

De Santis, Roberto A.; Tornese, Tommaso - 2024

of Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016). The impact is stronger on private investment and durables and milder on the consumption …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014507165

When does lumpy factor adjustment matter for aggregate dynamics?

Fahr, Stephan; Yao, Fang - 2009

aggregate output, investment and labour in an otherwise standard real business cycle model. Lumpy capital leaves the RBC mainly … repsonses. In addition, when modeling lumpy adjustments on both investment and labour, the aggregate effects are even stronger … element in accounting for these differences. -- Lumpy labor adjustment ; Lumpy investment ; Business cycles ; Elasticity of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831817

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