Showing 1 - 10 of 1,297
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001792730
In this paper, we study the effects of structural shocks that influence global risk - the main factor behind a "global … capital flows cycle" - and how risk, in turn, is transmitted to capital flows. Our results show that not all the risk shocks … driving the global financial cycle have the same effects on capital flows. Changes in global risk caused by pure financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009141
financial markets world-wide gained importance during the post-crisis "second phase of global liquidity" (Shin, 2013). The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316994
We characterise the probability distributions of various categories of gross capital flows conditional on information contained in financial asset prices in a panel of emerging market economies, with a focus on "tail" events. Our framework, based on the quantile regression methodology, allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503534
To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635914
This paper considers the role of foreign investors in developed-country equity markets. It presents a quantitative model of trading that is built around two new assumptions: (i) both the foreign and domestic investor populations contain investors of different sophistication, and (ii) investor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636533
We revisit the so-called "secular international problem", whereby the adjustment of current account imbalances purportedly falls entirely on the shoulders of deficit countries. We introduce a stylised model to rationalise an asymmetric counter-cyclical policy reaction that is stronger for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013552616
This paper examines two competing approaches for calculating current account benchmarks, i.e. the external sustainability approach á la Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (LM) versus the structural current accounts literature (SCA) based on panel econometric techniques. The aim is to gauge the medium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826590
programmes implemented by the ECB since 2015 have overall almost halved the risk of severe sudden stops in euro area countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643263
This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970419