breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its … manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation. …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent … downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation … inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

policy rules and of the optimal unconstrained rule under commitment. The study reaches two main conclusions. First, inflation …

Following Fuhrer and Moore (1995), several authors have proposed alternative mechanisms to 'hardwire' inflation … European Monetary Union, of inflation-targeting countries, and of the new Swiss monetary policy regime, I show that, in the …), the parameters encoding the 'intrinsic' component of inflation persistence are not invariant across monetary policy …