commodity prices ; inflation ; non-linearities ; pass-through …

This paper studies the role of global factors in causing common movements in consumer price inflation, with particular … collected from national and international sources. Global factors explain a large share of the variance of national inflation …

We compare supermarket price setting in the US and the euro area and assess its impact on food inflation. We introduce … flexibility of supermarket inflation in the US relative to the euro area. We argue that the driving force behind both factors is … by a mildly state-dependent price-setting model, and they jointly explain over a third of the difference in food-inflation …

Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …

affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy. Using panel local projections for 48 advanced and … inflation in the near term, especially in EMEs. But over the medium term, the impact across the various price indices tends to …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent … downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation … inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …