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and their interaction is crucial for the dynamics of inflation and unemployment. We estimate a panel VAR with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972885
Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun's law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun's regressions and structural shocks identified with a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332832
euro area as a whole and in its five largest countries. In a Bayesian VAR framework, the two credit supply shocks are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013265943
-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a 'ProbVAR'. At any …. - Recessions ; forecasting ; probit ; VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529
This paper analyses the endogeneity of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. In this framework, total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212852
This paper uses cross-country micro-aggregated data on firm dynamics and productivity from the ECB CompNet database to provide empirical evidence on factor reallocation in the European Union (EU). The analysis finds that reallocation is towards more productive firms although the magnitude varies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937320
This paper studies monetary policy strategies under endogenous technology dynamics and low r. Endogenous growth strengthens the gains from make-up strategies relative to inflation targeting, especially if policy space is reduced. This result is due to the long-run non-neutrality of money and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342235
This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that are relevant for monetary policy. The model matches remarkably well the short and long run dynamics of skilled and unskilled workers. Skill mismatch and skill-specific labour...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012880717
Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975616
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647948