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Ideology and monetary policy : the role of political parties' stances in the ECB's parliamentary hearings
Fraccaroli, Nicolò; Giovannini, Alessandro; Jamet, … - 2022
We investigate whether ideology drives the sentiments of parliamentarians when they speak to the central bank they hold accountable. To this end, we collect textual data on the quarterly hearings of the ECB President before the European Parliament from 1999 to 2019. We apply sentiment analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939688
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Transforming "sympathetic interlocutors" into veto players
Reinsberg, Bernhard; Kern, Andreas; Rau-Goehring, Matthias - 2021
International organizations (IOs) often drive policy change in member countries. Given IOs' limited political leverage over a member country, previous research argues that IOs rely on a combination of hard pressures (i.e., conditionality) and soft pressures (i.e., socialization) to attain their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421091
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The role of IMF conditionality for central bank independence
Kern, Andreas; Reinsberg, Bernhard; Rau-Goehring, Matthias - 2020
This paper studies the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in promoting central bank independence (CBI). While anecdotal evidence suggests that the IMF has been playing a vital role for CBI, the underlying mechanisms of this influence are not well understood. We argue that the IMF has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271557
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Consumer inflation expectations in Poland
£yziak, Tomasz - 2003
Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635882
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Demographics and inflation in the euro area : a two-sector new Keynesian perspective
Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; Papetti, Andrea - 2020
Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent … downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation … inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181303
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Real time estimates of the euro area output gap : reliability and forecasting performance
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - 2010
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971060
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What triggers prolonged inflation regimes? : a historical analysis
Vansteenkiste, Isabel - 2009
This paper empirically assesses which factors trigger prolonged periods of inflation for a sample of 91 countries over … inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that for all cases considered a more fixed exchange rate regime and lower real … policy rates increase the probability of an inflation start. For developing countries, other relevant factors include food …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963812
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ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty
Fernandes, Cecilia Melo - 2021
This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation … forecasts of inflation) but also makes forecasters less uncertain about their own beliefs, thus reducing ex-ante average … individual uncertainty. By combining and exploiting these types of ex-ante inflation uncertainty, results suggest that central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603073
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The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area : what has changed since the great recession?
Dovern, Jonas; Kenny, Geoff - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636332
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Will US inflation awake from the dead? : the role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve
Albuquerque, Bruno; Baumann, Ursel - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636747