surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian … policy ; model uncertainty ; Bayesian model averaging ; unemployment gap ; Taylor rule …

, this allows the model to generate fluctuations of unemployment, vacancies, and labor productivity whose magnitudes are …

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy … shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification …. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global …

estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By … rate cuts to stimulate the economy and lift inflation back to target in the immediate aftermath of the GFC. …

degree of wage rigidity makes monetary policy more effective, i.e. a monetary policy shock transmits faster onto inflation … fluctuations. Our results point primarily towards disturbances in the bargaining process as a significant contributor to inflation … important for monetary policy. -- Labor Market ; wage rigidity ; bargaining ; Bayesian estimation …

cycle. The shift in the inflation-output trade-off may result from higher macro-economic uncertainty in low leverage states …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in …