patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

We compare the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom …, focusing on the post-crisis period. First of all, we estimate a set of measures of average and tail correlation using inflation …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

Inflation targeting is implemented in different ways - most often by adopting point targets, by having tolerance bands … target types affect the anchoring of inflation expectations at shorter horizons differently. It tests two contradictory …. This suggests that there are some benefits to adopting intervals, but the central bank can anchor inflation expectations …