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Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries
Perotti, Roberto (contributor) - 2002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001702818
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House prices and the stance of monetary policy
Jarocinski, Marek (contributor); Smets, Frank (contributor) - 2008
This paper estimates a Bayesian VAR for the US economy which includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions. Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal GDP and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778777
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Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018
-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
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Mind the output gap : the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area
Groß, Marco; Semmler, Willi - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
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Interest rates and foreign spillovers
De Santis, Roberto A.; Zimic, Srečko - 2019
We show that medium-term interest rates in the euro area, Japan, UK and US are affected by domestic and foreign shocks. We find that US rates are the main source of spillovers globally and are less exposed to foreign shocks. Foreign spillovers to European rates were negligible only during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959276
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Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment : crowding-in and crowding-out effects
Afonso, António (contributor);  … - 2008
Using annual data from 14 European Union countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment through VAR analysis. From impulse response functions, we are able to assess the extent of crowding-in or crowding-out of both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003747969
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Explaining the Great Moderation : it is not the shocks
Giannone, Domenico (contributor); Lenza, Michele (contributor) - 2008
This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003747971
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Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low interest rates
Ampudia, Miguel; Heuvel, Skander van den - 2018
This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on the equity values of European banks. We identify monetary policy shocks by looking at changes in the EONIA one-month and two-year swap contract rates during narrow windows around the press statements and press conferences announcing monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928956
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Would the Bundesbank have prevented the Great Inflation in the United States?
Benati, Luca - 2009
1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests … that the Bundesbank - which is near-universally credited for sparing West Germany the Great Inflation - would also not have … been able to prevent the Great Inflation in the United States. The sheer implausibility of this result sounds a cautionary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969295
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Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers
Jarociński, Marek - 2020
The news about the economy contained in a central bank announcement can affect public expectations. This paper shows, using both event studies and vector autoregressions, that such central bank information effects are an important channel of the transatlantic spillover of monetary policy. They...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012298995