financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at … can anticipate aggregate fluctuations from those that do not help to this aim. Beyond the purely forecasting application … forecasting ; granular shock ; international linkages …

information over and above the EDF, especially at longer forecasting horizons. At an aggregate level the DI shows superior … forecasting power compared to the EDF, for horizons between 3 and 12 months. We illustrate the predictive power of the DI measure …

, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of univariate forecasting equations to what extent monthly indicators provide …

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square …

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting … for estimating the model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a … natural example of such exogenous information. We illustrate the application of our method by an out-of-sample forecasting …

as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …