Showing 1 - 10 of 407
This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206258
This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013265941
This paper develops a model with multiple steady states (low tax and unemployment rate versus high tax and unemployment … European unemployment rates observed during the seventies. The explanation given is that even if the unemployment rate would … job creation remains low making the return to a low unemployment rate impossible. The paper shows that in some cases …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635968
This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that … skilled workers increases the natural rate of unemployment and reduces total factor productivity with long- run effects on the … Beveridge curves. Skill-specific labour market heterogeneity leads to a attening of the Phillips curve as wages and unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012880717
In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259350
Using a pan-European dataset of 8.5 million firms, we find that firms with high debt overhang invest relatively more than otherwise similar firms if they are operating in sectors facing good global growth opportunities. At the same time, the positive impact of a marginal increase in debt on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959220
I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959253
This paper assesses whether the international monetary system is already tripolar and centred around the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China's "dominance hypothesis", i.e. whether the renminbi is already the dominant currency in Asia, exerting a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380945
We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396
We study the interaction between borrowers' and banks' solvency in a quantitative macroeconomic model with financial frictions in which bank assets are a portfolio of defaultable loans. We show that ex-ante imperfect diversification of bank lending generates bank asset returns with limited...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012224086