affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …

through to all components of euro area inflation - producer prices, wages and core inflation, which has implications for …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …

A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin … exploit data available only at monthly frequency for both countries. - Factor Models ; Forecasting ; Inflation ; Mixed …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …