Showing 1 - 10 of 62
We compare direct forecasts of HICP and HICP excluding energy and food in the euro area and five member countries to aggregated forecasts of their main components from large Bayesian VARs with a shared set of predictors. We focus on conditional point and density forecasts, in line with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012384462
aggregation across countries over the heterogeneous representative agents, and we derive the resulting formulas for stochastic … aggregation over countries. Our theory permits monitoring the effects of policy at the aggregate level over the euro area, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635917
This paper re-examines two data issues concerning euro area money demand: aggregation of national data and measurement … be useful in forecasting exercises.F inally, the conclusions are robust for the aggregation method and the choice of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635921
We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003280663
forecasting directly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based on the aggregation of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867019
This paper explores how discretionary fiscal policies on the revenue side of the government budget have reacted to economic fluctuations in European Union countries. For this purpose, it uses data on legislated revenue changes and structural indicators provided twice per year by National Central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969250
Beyer, Doornik and Hendry (2000, 2001) show analytically that three out of four aggregation methods yield problematic … the choice of aggregation method. - Aggregation ; Flexible weights ; Eurowide money demand ; Cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970393
The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963761
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765178
The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238003