This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. We find that the price markup reacts positively to the ratio of expected discounted profits to current output, which is normally seen to...

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show...

Advances in the development of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models towards medium-scale structural frameworks with satisfying data coherence have considerably enhanced the range of analytical tools well-suited for monetary policy evaluation. The present paper intends to make a...

The move to monetary union in Europe led to convergence of interest rates among the participating countries. This was associated with notable cross-country differences in the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. Compared to the low interest rate countries, former high interest rate...

The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the US dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction...

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union...

This paper examines bond and stock market volatility reactions in the euro area and the US following their respective economies' monetary policy decisions, over a uniform sample period (April 1999 to May 2006). For this purpose, intraday data on the US and euro area bond and stock markets are...

This paper presents a systematic empirical relationship between money and subsequent prices and output, using US, euro area and Swiss data since the 1960-70s. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent...

In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy. We make use of a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models: the Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005) model, the Smets and...

We explore the macroeconomic impact of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a Bayesian time-varying parameter structural VAR. We identify a 'pure' spread shock which, leaving the short-term rate unchanged by construction,...