predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. - Forecasting ; Inflation …

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others …

This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB … simulation analysis. The specic̄ation of the Italian model follows closely that of the Area-Wide Model (AWM) and indeed the other …

Japanese yen bond markets. The reference returns result from a regime-switching Nelson-Siegel yield curve model following …