affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

applied to a vector autoregression model for euro area inflation. …