the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

-of-sample ; prediction ; testing ; multiple model comparisons ; inflation forecasting …-statistic has best power. We illustrate, our procedures by comparing forecasts of different models for U.S. inflation. -- Out …

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area …) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time …

inflation and output growth. We find that some combinations are superior to the individual models for the joint and the output …. For the inflation forecasts, the DSGE models are better overall than the BVARs and the combination methods. …

commodity prices ; inflation ; non-linearities ; pass-through …

point and density forecasts, in line with forecasting practices at many policy institutions. Our main findings are that … point forecasts perform similarly using both approaches, whereas directly forecasting aggregate indices tends to yield … better density forecasts. In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, relative forecasting performance was typically only …

variables in the model, rather than just on future paths as it is usually done in the conditional forecasting literature. The … forecasting densities of a BVAR and a DSGE model on information about the marginal densities of future oil prices. The results … show that increased asymmetric upside risks to oil prices result in upside risks to inflation as well as higher core-inflation …

and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of … monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …