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This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405305
matter when all are treated symmetrically a priori? We find that growth determinants emerging from agnostic Bayesian model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636074
A prediction model is any statement of a probability distribution for an outcome not yet observed. This study considers the properties of weighted linear combinations of n prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the conventional log predictive scoring rule. The log score is a concave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831826
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832590
the NMS, by using a Bayesian estimation that combines information across countries. The impulse responses in the NMS are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003825885
We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003484192
of such exercises. - Bayesian VARs ; time-varying parameters ; stochastic volatility ; identified VARs ; Great Inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969295
; Euro Area External Finance Premium ; Financial Accelerator ; Bayesian Estimation ; Inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972629
We characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation tradeoff since the late XIX century era via a Bayesian …. - Phillips trade-off ; Lucas critique ; Bayesian VARs ; time-varying parameters ; stochastic volatility ; identified VARs ; Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972677
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … nonstructural benchmarks, such as Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). Overall, the empirical evidence indicates that the NAWM … BVAR can outperform the NAWM. - Bayesian inference ; DSGE models ; euro area ; forecasting ; open-economy macroeconomics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972991