find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density … dimensions. We document a small downward shift in mean long-run expectations toward the end of our sample although they remain …

estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the …

behaviour of these expectations. We show that the introduction of survey and financial market-based forecasts in the estimation …Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative … macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of … monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …

direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential … patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same …