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unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast … bias. - Forecast combination ; forecast evaluation ; data snooping ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional Forecasters …
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similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …
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-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest …
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rationality using techniques widely employed in the applied literature of forecast evaluation. In general, the results are …
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In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex post sampling variation such as the nature of economic shocks that … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best. …
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This paper analyzes the predictability of emerging market currency crises by comparing the often used probit model to a new method, namely a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to the results, both models were able to signal currency crises reasonably well...
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This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper … activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard … method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in …
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