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Satellites turn "concrete" : tracking cement with satellite data and neural networks
D'Aspremont, Alexandre; Arous, Simon Ben; Bricongne, … - 2024
This paper exploits daily infrared images taken from satellites to track economic activity in advanced and emerging countries. We first develop a framework to read, clean, and exploit satellite images. Our algorithm uses the laws of physics (Planck's law) and machine learning to detect the heat...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484491
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Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?
Shagi, Makram el-; Giesen, Sebastian; Jung, Alexander - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010380095
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Are emerging market currency crises predictable? : A test
Peltonen, Tuomas A. (contributor) - 2006
This paper analyzes the predictability of emerging market currency crises by comparing the often used probit model to a new method, namely a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to the results, both models were able to signal currency crises reasonably well...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003250256
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The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity
Espinoza, Raphael; Fornari, Fabio; Lombardi, Marco - 2009
activity with a peak around 4 to 6 quarters after the shock. Out-of-sample Root-Mean- Squared Forecast Error (RMFE) shows that … predominantly of financial nature. -- VAR ; Financial Variables ; International Linkages ; Conditional Forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963810
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Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union
Banerjee, Anindya (contributor);  … - 2005
The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators an exercise of some importance. Because of the transition period, only short spans of reliable time series are available, suggesting the adoption of simple time series models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003014239
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Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States
Arratibel, Olga; Kamps, Christophe; Leiner-Killinger, Nadine - 2009
the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest … benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831802
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Explaining government revenue windfalls and shortfalls : an analysis for selected EU countries
Morris, Richard; Braz, Cláudia Rodrigues; Castro, … - 2009
, more structural factors also play a role, such as declining consumption of fuel and tobacco, as well as factors specific to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969235
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Leading indicators in a globalised world
Fichtner, Ferdinand; Rüffer, Rasmus; Schnatz, Bernd - 2009
. At the same time, we find indications that the forecast accuracy has declined over time for several countries. Augmenting … the country-specific CLI with a leading indicator of the external environment and employing forecast combination … techniques improves the forecast performance for several economies. Over time, the increasing importance of international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969270
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Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - 2009
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963738
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Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time : the euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)
Bondt, Gabe J. de; Hahn, Elke - 2010
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008659395