unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast … bias. - Forecast combination ; forecast evaluation ; data snooping ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional Forecasters …

similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest …

rationality using techniques widely employed in the applied literature of forecast evaluation. In general, the results are …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex post sampling variation such as the nature of economic shocks that … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best. …

This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper … activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard … method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in …