; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

We study empirically how competition among high-frequency traders (HFTs) affects their trading behavior and market …-frequency competition, and contains an exogenous event - a tick size reform - which we use to disentangle the effects of the rising share of … high-frequency trading in the market from the effects of high-frequency competition. We find that when HFTs compete, their …

series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others …

output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …